Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 01/1947Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0422Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6809 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 075
Predicted   02 May-04 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        01 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  008/008-009/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/40