Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 28/2127Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35070 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 077
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 077/075/075
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  008/008-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/20