Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (16 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/2246Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/2123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1427 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    01/01/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 073
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 075/083/088
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  007/010-014/020-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/55/55