Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 14/0125Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2534 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    01/01/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 073
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 075/085/085
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  009/010-007/008-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/40
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/55