Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 13/1304Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1841Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2552 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Apr, 16 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    01/01/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 074
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 075/075/085
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  008/008-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/05
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/15