Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 12/0336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1799 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 071
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 070/070/075
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  006/005-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/25/20