Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0905Z from Region 2645 (S09W0*). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (09 Apr) and expected to be very low on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 680 km/s at 08/1544Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/1119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 491 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 073
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  012/012-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20