Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 07/1949Z from Region 2645 (S09W91). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (09 Apr) and expected to be very low on day three (10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 06/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 074
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10
