Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 06/1210Z from Region 2645 (S10W79). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (07 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 06/0610Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 241 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (09 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    20/10/01
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 076
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 072/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05