Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 730 km/s at 30/2048Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0923Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1707Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 24432 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 086
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 086/087/088
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  018/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  015/020-015/020-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/30