Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 24/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8821 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (27 Mar) and active to major storm levels on day three (28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 074
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  009/012-016/025-028/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor Storm           10/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    30/30/10