Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 12/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7626 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 070
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/15