Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 07/1351Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/0349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31175 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 072
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/10