Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 25/0253Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1287 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb), quiet levels on day two (27 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 080
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 080/082/082
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  008/008-005/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/10/40