Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 342 km/s at 16/0418Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3085 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 078
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  007/008-018/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/45/45
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/70/60