Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 349 km/s at 15/0228Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3432 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 078
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-007/008-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/45
Minor Storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/70