Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 742 km/s at 26/0142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/0522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26143 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 074
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 074/075/075
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/10/10