Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 743 km/s at 25/1851Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25725 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 073
Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 073/073/075
90 Day Mean 25 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 014/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 012/010-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10