Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 737 km/s at 23/2144Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1429Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1430Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29524 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 073
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10