Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 19/0645Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 528 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (21 Dec) and active to minor storm levels on day three (22 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 073
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 075/075/078
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 012/015-017/025-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/35
Minor Storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/60/65