Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 17/1552Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 072
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 007/008-011/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40