Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 16/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6986 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Dec, 18 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 073
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 008/008-007/008-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/40