Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 570 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/1438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/2324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9650 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Dec, 15 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 071
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10