Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 667 km/s at 11/0032Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 24002 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 071
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 073/073/075
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10