Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and expected to be very low on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 734 km/s at 09/0511Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 09/1430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4227 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 073
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 020/024-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10