Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 08/1716Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 08/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 08/0823Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 075
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 075/075/070
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 016/020-014/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20