Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/0607Z from Region 2615 (S07W33). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 05/1921Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/0227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3396 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 083
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 085/082/080
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/008-011/015-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/35
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/30