Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/1723Z from Region 2615 (S08E51). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 29/0344Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18834 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 086
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10