Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 876 km/s at 26/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25265 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 083
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 084/083/083
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/15