Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 22/1235Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/1832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/1210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 567 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 077
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 079/079/081
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 025/035-022/030-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20