Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 17/2304Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/1842Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/2247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5803 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Nov), unsettled to active levels on day two (20 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 078
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 011/015-013/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25