Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 15/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Nov, 18 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 081
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 083/083/082
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 006/005-006/005-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20