Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 14/2113Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19442 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 077
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 077/077/079
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10