Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 12/1817Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 12/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 12/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 078
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 082/080/078
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 015/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/082-010/080-007/078

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/15