Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 06/0535Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3163 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Nov, 09 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 076
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 075/075/078
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 007/008-016/020-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20