Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 04/2348Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/0447Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3752 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 077
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 078/078/075
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 006/005-005/005-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/15