Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 31/0008Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/0300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21357 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 077
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 078/076/074
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 010/010-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25