Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 740 km/s at 29/0842Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21657 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (30 Oct, 31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 079
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 080/085/085
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 026/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 013/015-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/20/15