Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 801 km/s at 26/0110Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 25/2129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 078
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 078/077/076
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 039/058
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 032/048
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 024/030-019/024-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20