Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 811 km/s at 25/1757Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 25/1017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 25/1011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 650 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (26 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (28 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 078
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 078/078/076
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 037/060
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 026/040-019/024-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/30/20