Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 13/0901Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 13/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 13/1529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 610 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Oct) and unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 095
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 026/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 025/060-020/025-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor Storm 30/05/05
Major-severe storm 25/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/30/25