Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 09/0908Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3515 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 105
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20