Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 08/0230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/0416Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2839 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 104
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 104/104/104
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10