Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 07/0331Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/1419Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1448Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6774 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 104
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 106/104/104
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10