Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 05/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15288 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 102
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 102/102/105
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10