Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 19/2058Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 19/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 19/2048Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (22 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 083
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 015/020-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/15/15
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20