Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 823 km/s at 03/2050Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22115 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (04 Sep), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 099
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 024/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 026/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 020/030-015/018-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 30/10/10