Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 29/2326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1133 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (02 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 071
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 006/005-007/008-020/032

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/10/35
Major-severe storm 01/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 10/40/70