Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 July 2016
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 24/0620Z from Region 2567 (N05W92). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (25 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 24/1453Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 24/1512Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 24/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 40/10/01
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 082
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 075/075/070
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 012/012-010/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor Storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/30
