Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 22/0651Z from Region 2567 (N06W66). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (23 Jul, 24 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (25 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 22/1722Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/1350Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Jul, 24 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (25 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 30/30/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 090
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/10